THE TRANSATLANTIC MAGAZINE
THE TRANSATLANTIC MAGAZINE
While I expect this election to be difficult for Republicans, there are reasons to be optimistic. Polling has become less stable so don’t be too pessimistic – remember we expected to pick up 25 seats in 2022 and underperformed with 9. In 2020 there were 27 “toss up” House races, and we won all of them (and picked up 13 seats). Don’t believe the Senate polls – remember they said Lindsey Graham, Rick Scott and Ted Cruz were all in tight races and they all won by considerable margins. I expect to lose the majority in the House, but by a more modest margin than suggested by the polls, and barely keep the Senate.
Certainly we are going to lose seats, and certainly there are vulnerable Republicans in districts and States that President Trump won by double digits. Discount the legacy media argument that this is a great rebuke – people in 2024 knew exactly what they were voting for and most are happy with what they see, especially around the border and tax cuts.
The reality is the party in power almost always loses the midterms, 47 of the last 49 midterm elections. The two exceptions were in very exceptional circumstances. Bill Clinton in 1998 (with a great economy and impeachment blowback) and GW Bush in 2002 with the patriotism and unity after 9/11. Even Ronald Reagan, who won 44 states in 1980 and 49 in 1984, lost both midterms. It’s normal. Support for the party in power almost always wanes.
There is some good news and we have some tailwinds too.
The socialist Islamist candidate in Michigan stumbled over the weekend and the Republican candidate was publicly endorsed by Democrat congresswoman Haley Stevens. Abdul El Sayed’s loyalty to Hassan Piker over Stevens, and loyalty to Dearborn over the state and the country, might help his opponent and other GOP candidates.
The Democrat cheating scandal in Alaska and the corruption in Minnesota might sway some voters. And President Trump’s campaign rallies will energize the base and increase turnout. Our only hope to prevent a blue wave in the House and loss of the Senate majority is to turn out voters, so the last few days will help.
Although unlikely, voters might recall that Biden and Democrats actually caused the inflation and higher interest rates that trouble Americans. Prices are up 27% since 2021, 22 from Biden and 5 from President Trump. Mortgage rates were 2.86% when Biden replaced Trump in 2021, when he finished his term rates were 6.80%, now at 7.25. So rates are up 4.5% since 2020, 4.0 from Biden and 0.5 from Trump. Biden policy was tax, spending recklessly and burden the private sector with regulations. He was hostile to the energy sector resulting in less production and higher prices - in fact the average in 2022 was $4.25 a gallon.
But the reality is voters forget, so let’s hope the common sense vs crazy argument helps our cause.