THE TRANSATLANTIC MAGAZINE
THE TRANSATLANTIC MAGAZINE
At the time of writing, the US mid-term elections are exactly one month away and for, a number of reasons, Georgia has become the fulcrum upon which American politics may turn. With so many variables (and each one a wild card in its own right) it would be foolish to make predictions. However, there are two outstanding features:
1) Republicans scent an opportunity for a come-back and don’t seem to care that the price they may pay is the soul of their party - a perspective that makes them both determined and dangerous;
2) Democrats have looked harried since taking the White House and the House, and their knife edge control of the Senate has been exhausting in terms of political goodwill while struggling to make real progress.
That said, more recent wins (and the creation of what may be a wake-up/wedge issue by the conservative-dominated Supreme Court in Roe vs Wade) may have lifted their spirits and their prospects just in time.
In moments of doubt and uncertainty, a football-crazy country loves to ‘check the stats’ and political pollsters tell us that, right now, Democrats have increased their generic ballot lead by 5 points - their best performance since August - and although President Biden’s approval rating has edged up, it is nothing to write home about. Democrats are consistently more likely to vote than Republicans, but only by about 4 points and the Pandemic has (finally) faded as a ‘top’ election issue by a whopping 31% - but it is still unclear who that may help.
More historically minded pundits point out that the party holding the White House at the mid-term loses an average of 26 House seats and 4 Senate seats, an outcome that would easily turn both chambers red. On the other hand, there have been times when it has lost as many as 50 or 60 seats and, conversely, managed to hold losses to single digits. On three occasions over the past century, the White House party has actually gained seats (not really expected this time, but then no one really expected Kansans to turn out in such numbers in a primary election to defeat a constitutional amendment on abortion - these are strange times).
Add to a febrile election environment all the events that have pummeled faith in democracy and fundamentally altered the social and legal context. Namely, the fallout of the “Stolen Election” rhetoric and the January riots (with continuing hearings) and the changing of laws at the state level. It is striking that, since the beginning of 2021, 18 states have passed 34 restrictive voting laws likely to disproportionately affect voters of color.
These issues provide the backdrop to the drama in Georgia, where the election cycle has gone from soap opera to farce and could still turn to tragedy. First some background. Locally, due to those legal changes, Georgia voter registration will now close on October 10 and drop boxes, while never the norm in Georgia until the pandemic, will be reduced significantly. The time to request an absentee ballot has been cut, with none available after October 28. Voters will also now require proof of identity to get an absentee ballot which, according to the Atlanta-Journal Constitution, will present a problem for more than 272,000 registered voters who don't have a driver's license or state ID on file. These are most Black and in Democratic-leaning counties. The origin of these changes in Georgia are pure Machiavelli, spawned in the aftermath of the success of Stacey Abrams’s voter registration campaign and the voter fraud scandal involving Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
The Stacey Abrams story started in 2018 after her failed bid for Governor when, recognizing the dropping black student vote, the team decided that registration among young people would be key. Success was sweet, with young voters forming 20% of the state’s votes, and 90% of young black people voted for President Biden in 2020. The youth vote overall (generally a low-turnout group) rose across the southern states and changed the color of the state’s political future.
These newly voting were joined by new voters as Asian-American immigrants rose by 80,000 between 1970 and 1980, settling around Atlanta to work in the academic, medical and tech industries. As of the most recent census, Asian-Americans comprise nearly 5% of metro Atlanta’s 6 million residents, putting them nearly level with the city’s Latino population. However, while this non-white majority plays an increasing role, they are not a voting bloc and it was still a photo finish in 2020.
Which leads directly to the Raffensperger affair. A former Republican member of the Georgia House of Representatives, businessman, and civil engineer, Raffensperger began his career as Secretary of State of Georgia in 2019. Generally not considered a role with much publicity or conflict, Raffensperger did not reckon on a president demanding he change the election results. To his credit, Raffensperger refused and the Stolen Election crusade was born, as was the new political tactic of the ‘revenge endorsement’ which led Trump to support Rep. Jody Hice against Raffensperger (who won anyway).
Thus, we come to the litany of Trump endorsements that some claim will help predict what to expect in November. However, they are also a mixed and complex story. Back to the stats and clearly a betting man, Trump shortened his odds by offering last-minute endorsements when the outcome seemed clear. He also improved his win-loss record by backing incumbents, often in deep red states. On one hand, if his riskier bets lose, Trump could be blamed, and even though many expect the Democrats to lose the House, if they manage to hang on Trump will again be the scapegoat of choice. On the other hand, a deeper dive into materials put out by Republican candidates reveals that something like more than half of the Republicans - even in deep red areas - are actually staying away from Trump. We may see MAGA frothing at the mouth, but the beast is not rabid. Trump, so far, seems to be staying true to his strategy of playing to the converted rather than building a wider base, which makes him a strong leader of a faction but not a leader of the whole. All that said, it is a classically brassy Trump strategy to put his own reputation on the line at the mid-term moment.
All of which brings us back to the pinnacle of the fulcrum and the Herschel Walker v. Raphael Warnock Senate race. At this point in a campaign, as any organizer will know, the campaign shifts from a steady marathon pace to the full-on sprint to the finish. Is it any wonder then, that The Daily Beast chose this moment to drop its bombshell on Walker. A Trump supporting, former Heisman trophy winning, local boy made good - it was neck and neck against Warnock, a former pastor of Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church and, since 2019, the junior Senator for Georgia. Neck and neck, at least until the news of an abortion paid for by Walker for a former girlfriend, hit the headlines. A staunch pro-lifer with no exceptions after 15 weeks, Walker was suddenly caught in a ‘do what I say/not what I do’ drama. He denied all knowledge of the woman - until the next news cycle revealed she was the mother of one of his four children (three of whom had been all but non-existent to this point - and all with different women). And still the 24-hour news cycle kept grinding as we watched patricide-by-social-media committed by his son Christian, a conservative commentator in his own right. Many Republican king makers immediately stepped in with money and support. Others have been quietly asking how he got to be the candidate. Warnock has kept his head down. Suddenly, Walker is in a tailspin (and may indeed be counted out by the time this hits the press) but the contest has taken on epic proportions. The impact of all of the swirling issues of the past two years - at every level and in every branch of government - has been captured in a snapshot moment of ugly American politics at its worst - or at least at its most hypocritical. The voting audience doesn’t know if they should laugh or cry - or both.
The Walker website does not say when his sincere direct-to-camera video was filmed, but we see him standing on his high school football field talking about his journey from a small town to college and football fame. He talks about hard work, America and personal responsibility as we see cut away shots of him at local events, meeting people in the community and a lingering shot of him shaking hands with a pregnant woman. Then, at the end, and if one isn’t looking carefully one might miss it, but in the background - on the scoreboard there it is - the final insult to irony: Lovett Stadium. Home of the Trojans.
Dr. Alison Holmes is Professor of International Studies and Politics at Humboldt State University, CA. She lived in the UK for over 20 years and worked at the BBC, ran BritishAmerican Business in London and was speechwriter to the US Ambassador.
