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SPORTS FANTASY FOCUS Fantasy Football Analysis by John Pedigo 
Top 10 Surprises of the 2008 Fantasy Football SeasonLike many other NFL fans, fantasy football is a big part of my fall entertainment. I've been playing for around 15 years. I've had dominant teams, teams that dominated only to lose in the first round of playoffs, and I've had seasons like 2008, when one of my teams lost their last 3 regular season games, grabbed the last playoff spot with a 6–7 record, and then won the championship thanks to unbelievable games from guys like Pierre Thomas, Dominic Rhodes, and Tashard Choice. Who'd have guessed those guys were championship material? Here's a look back at a few of 2008’s biggest surprises. The Good... 1. DeAngelo Williams (Carolina) — 1515 yards and 20 total TDs No one saw this coming. He was usually drafted in the mid to lower rounds, as a third or fourth runningback. This has to rank as the best value of last year's fantasy draft, an amazing season. Can he do it again? Probably not, and there is some concern that Jonathan Stewart will steal carries from him, but I'm not real worried about that, as the Panthers run so much — there’s plenty of carries for both. This year Williams had 60% of the carries. That may drop a little but I think he will continue to get 15–20 a game. I’d grab him around the end of the first round or early second. 2. Philip Rivers (San Diego) — 34 TDs and became a top tier QB At the beginning of the season there were many questions about how well he would play after knee surgery. He responded be having his best year and turning the Chargers into a passing team. I see this continuing as LaDainian Tomlinson continues to slow down. With talk of the Chargers perhaps trading Tomlinson, it seems they know this too. Rivers should be one of the top five quarterbacks taken. 3. Brett Favre (Green Bay) — 22 TDs and almost got the Jets in the playoffs When he decided to come out of retirement to play for the Jets, I took the 'avoid–at–all–cost' approach. He still threw 22 interceptions, but from a fantasy perspective had a much better season then some of the top ranked QBs. If he returns after the post–season criticism from some of his teammates, I can't really recommend taking him as a starter, but will be a top backup. 4. Thomas Jones (NY Jets) — 1310 yards and 15 total TDs This is the player I expected to benefit from Favre and he did. The addition of Favre kept defenses from keying on Jones. Despite the fact that Jones was one of the main players to make comments about Favre, I still see Favre as being the key to Jones’ success. If Favre comes back, expect another great season. If Favre retires, Jones’ touchdowns go way back down. 5. The Rookie Running Backs I cant remember a group with this much impact. Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart and Kevin Smith all had great seasons. Forte was usually taken in the fourth or fifth round and played like a top pick, Slaton was usually undrafted and became a must–start; Johnson usually went no higher then the fifth round and played like a first round pick. If Stewart didn’t have to share the ball with Williams, he’d be as valuable as any of these. Smith is hurt by the fact that he plays for the Lions. If you’re drafting for a keeper league, Forte and Johnson would be great players to build around, and I expect those two to be around for a while. 6. Kurt Warner (Arizona) — 4580 yards and 30 TDs Not bad for someone not named starter until Aug 31. You knew if he got the starting job, he’d be decent, but he had his best season since 2001. His contract is up, and he may be considering retirement. The Cardinals should do everything in their power to resign him, and if they do, He should be drafted as a top 5 QB next year. 7. Matt Ryan (Atlanta) — 3440 yards and 16 TDs This was a real surprise. Rookie QBs are never decent fantasy players — about the best you could hope for is the type of season Joe Flacco had — but Ryan never really played like a rookie, and got the Falcons to the playoffs. He will be even better next year. I see him as one of the top fantasy backups next year. As for Flacco, he probably wont be drafted in most leagues. While he’s a good QB for the Ravens, He’ll never put up big fantasy numbers. 8. Matt Cassel (New England) and Tyler Thigpen (Kansas City) You probably hadn’t heard of them before the season started, but both were very useful to anyone needing a QB. Cassel stepped in when Tom Brady was injured in the first game and finished the season as a top ten quarterback. Thigpen started the season as Kansas City’s third string QB, but by the end of the year he was putting up pretty decent numbers. Next season draft Thigpen as a backup. Cassel will only be useful if he’s traded or if Brady can’t make it back by the start of the season. ...And a Couple of The Bad 9. Joseph Addai (Indianapolis) — 545 yards and 7 TDs Was taken early in all drafts, and never got going. He missed a few games, but he was ineffective even before the injuries. Dominic Rhodes was more effective while filling in. Addai could continue to lose time to Rhodes, especially if he keeps struggling. I really can’t see him having another year like 2008, and I can’t recommend using a first round pick on him. But I’d be willing to take him in the second round and hope 2008 was a fluke. 10. Larry Johnson (KC) — 875 yards and 5 TDs Johnson slide to the second round in most drafts last year. Five scores later, that seems pretty high. He’s not a bad running back, but unless KC improves a lot over the offseason, I just can’t see him having much room to run. I can see him dropping to the 4th round next season. |
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